Arctic Science Hub

Отчет об итогах конференции ООН об изменении климата COP 30

THE CLIMATIC STUDIES LIVE JOURNAL — Fri, 20 Mar 2026 09:50:56 +0300

Председательство COP30 вчера опубликовало отчет об итогах конференции ООН об изменении климата, состоявшейся в Бразилии в ноябре Напомню, председательство COP30 взяло на себя обязательство разработать «дорожные карты»: по справедливому, упорядоченному и равноправному переходу от ископаемого топлива и по прекращению и обращению вспять обезлесения и деградации лесов к 2030 году. Также продолжается работа по «дорожной карте Баку-Белен», направленной на мобилизацию 1,3 трлн долл США в виде климатического финансирования, что позволит реализовать цели Парижского соглашения, особенно в развивающихся странах. Еще один приоритет - продвижение программы адаптации, содействие диалогу между правительствами, финансовыми учреждениями и другими заинтересованными сторонами для расширения финансирования и поддержки реализации конкретных действий по адаптации во всех регионах. Упомянут и запуск Global Implementation Accelerator - для ускорения реализации национальных обязательств по борьбе с изменением климата и планов адаптации.

Arctic and global economy

Arctic Diplomacy Institute — Wed, 21 Jan 2026 23:51:25 +0300

The shores of the Arctic ocean are thrumming with ever more activity. Expect more in spring 2026, when the ice breaks up. The region is becoming less remote and forbidding https://econ.st/49eNK8w

Sweden Is Retreating From Its Bold Green Ambitions

ID.PAGE — Mon, 19 Jan 2026 09:27:10 +0300

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-14/sweden-s-climate-change-action-ambitions-are-unravellingJanuary 16, 2026

Emissions are rising again, and companies are in financial trouble

Takeaways by Bloomberg AI

The energy of the "Fridays for Future" campaign in Sweden has drained, mirroring a broader deflation of green ambitions in the country and across the continent.
Sweden's backslide on climate defense is striking, given its access to emissions-free electricity and history of driving aggressive emissions cuts through fossil fuel taxes and support for cleaner industries.
The country's green industrial revolution is faltering, with companies such as Stegra and Northvolt facing funding crises and the government refusing to provide support, leading to a rise in emissions and a drift away from climate targets.

Six years ago, the cobbled square outside Sweden’s parliament buzzed with energy as Greta Thunberg and her “Fridays for Future” demonstrators urged passing lawmakers to act on climate change through loudhailers and whistles.

On a recent Friday, it was far different. Two protesters, a small cardboard sign and a quiet vigil.

The energy that’s drained out of the campaign mirrors a broader deflation of green ambitions in Sweden and across the continent. Populist groups are pushing back against environmental initiatives, spurred on in part by Donald Trump’s anti-green agenda, and there’s been a weakening of near-term emission-reduction measures, especially where climate and cost-of-living policies have clashed.

The shift is widespread, but it marks a particularly sharp turn for Sweden, long a European leader on climate defense, driving aggressive emissions cuts through fossil fuel taxes and support for cleaner industries.

Now, skepticism has taken hold in parliament, the environmental drive gone into reverse, and investors in giant clean industrial projects are getting cold feet. Among those at risk is the world’s biggest new green steel plant, strapped for cash before it’s even started production.

Sweden’s backslide is even more striking given its energy backdrop. The country not only has access to copious amounts of emissions-free electricity from hydro power, nuclear plants and wind farms; More importantly, it’s among the cheapest in the world.

If a rich trailblazer, where consumers have felt the financial benefits of green energy directly in their pockets, can’t stay the course, who can?

“We were one of the first economies in the world that really showed that we could decouple economic development from emissions,” said Johan Rockstrom, a Swedish scientist and director of The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “Now we're losing that reputation of being a country that others respect.”

The most high-profile commercial failure has been Northvolt AB. Once Europe’s best hope for local battery production for car makers and others, cost overruns and production delays pushed it into bankruptcy. After it ran into trouble, the government refused to bail it out.

Stegra AB — the start-up behind the green steel facility — has also received a cold shoulder from fiscal policymakers in Stockholm as it tries to raise capital to avert a funding crisis.

With the next general election just eight months away, battle lines have already emerged around climate issues, and whoever wins will be hugely important to companies with ambitious projects. Opposition parties — including the Social Democrats and Greens — say they will renew the green push through an extension of credit guarantees and grants for emission-lowering industries, as well as a new state green investment bank.

Recent polling suggests the opposition bloc have around a seven-point lead.

Green Revolution

Both Stegra and Northvolt are part of what Sweden’s previous government intended to be a green industrial revolution. The plans are backed by a system of credit guarantees of up to $8.5 billion over the four years to 2025.

The tone changed in 2022, when Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s coalition came to power. It’s supported by the right-wing Sweden Democrats, which believes the climate crisis has been exaggerated.

Kristersson made a series of moves that eroded the country’s green credentials, including scrapping the environment ministry, reducing subsidies for electric vehicles, and cutting taxes on diesel to appeal to rural voters unhappy with rising costs. The result? Sweden’s emissions rose 7% in 2024, which the Environmental Protection Agency blamed on higher diesel consumption.

The administration also froze the credit guarantee program and late last year started an inquiry into its effectiveness. It also became more restrictive about grants available under some other programs.

Stegra, for example, recently got 390 million kronor ($43 million) in public money, about a quarter of what it requested. The company is continuing to try to raise funding for its plant.

“At the end of the day, companies have to stand on their own two feet,” Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson said in an interview. “The state shouldn't always decide which companies should be supported.”

Meanwhile, other parts of the green revolution have stumbled. A giant fertilizer plant was scrapped because it couldn’t get a power connection, while Danish utility Orsted A/S ended a Swedish green methanol project, saying there wasn’t yet a market.

“For key green transition projects to move forward, you need a positive and long-term vision from the state,” said Daniel Hellden, co-leader of the Green Party.

Some executives, who despite the challenges invest many billions of kronor in Sweden, concur. They want to see political backing.

“The government should take a stronger stand,” said Tobias Hansson, head of the Swedish unit of Hitachi Energy, an electrical infrastructure specialist. “The global management asks why we should invest in Sweden when we can get state aid in Germany, in France, in Canada, in many other countries in the world. This is a dead end from a Swedish perspective.”

Sweden’s hands-off industrial policy and reluctance to put money into individual companies is complicated by the scars of previous decisions, particularly ill-fated efforts to prop up ship building and steel making in the 1970s.

But the current government’s stance is primed to become part of the election campaign. Voters named the environment as one of their top five issues in a recent poll published by newspaper Dagens Nyheter.

The green investments are also intended to benefit some of Sweden’s economically-deprived regions, with large sums targeting the north of the country.

Now, as the plans falter, there’s a clear impact in towns that were supposed to be the heart of a new green economy.

In Skelleftea, the site of the bankrupt Northvolt battery plant, blocks of apartments built for workers now stand empty while businesses in the town have been forced to cut staff.

US battery maker Lyten Inc. bought the site, but is yet to restart operations.

Green infrastructure is capital-intensive and has “strong competition from places like China,” said Keith Norman, chief marketing officer at Lyten. “Consistent government support to get these industries off the ground remains critical.”

In Boden, the site of Stegra’s planned steel mill, the local municipality is up to its neck in debt after building infrastructure and expanding services to be able to accommodate thousands of workers and their families. Stegra’s schedule is now for a 2027 start, several years later than planned. The town of just 28,000 people has 1.56 billion kronor of debt, up from less than 100 million kronor in 2017, and the figure is expected to soar even higher.

Meanwhile, Sweden’s climate targets are drifting out of reach, with the OECD saying it will miss most of its 2030 goals.

On parliament square last month, Christmas shoppers and commuters streamed past the two climate demonstrators, largely oblivious to them.

“We hope a few more people will come,” said one, 24-year-old student Falk Schroter. “We kind of feel a responsibility to keep going, though it’s not our fault everything is getting worse.”

Trade routes gaining importance in the Arctic

Arctic Diplomacy Institute — Fri, 16 Jan 2026 17:15:57 +0300

Europe Begins to Tiptoe Away From Key Climate Policies

ID.PAGE — Mon, 22 Dec 2025 02:21:46 +0300

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/climate/europe-climate-policies.htmlDecember 19, 2025

Europe has some of the world’s most ambitious climate goals, but in recent months it has backtracked on rules governing automobile emissions and deforestation.

At the start of the year, as President Donald Trump began the process of withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement and started dismantling climate policies, the European Union president, Ursula von der Leyen, tacked in the opposite direction.

“Climate change is still on top of the global agenda,” she said during a speech in January.

Eleven months later, things look very different. Patricia Cohen and Eshe Nelson reported Tuesday that the E.U. is poised to water down its plans to ban the production of gas- and diesel-powered cars by 2035. Members of Parliament voted on Wednesday to delay the rollout of a groundbreaking deforestation law that would affect far-flung corners of the globe. And early this year, lawmakers chipped away at the scope and scale of new disclosure requirements meant to force companies to be more forthcoming about the environmental impact of their operations.

It’s not a pivot that’s on par with the U-turn the U.S. has taken on climate this year. Europe still has some of the strongest climate commitments in the world, with a goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. But the events of 2025, experts say, are reflective of increasing worries that E.U. regulations will slow economic growth.

“First, it was climate policy no matter what,” said Gianmarco Fifi, a research fellow at the University of California, Berkeley, who studies European politics. “Now, it’s climate policy, yes, but as long as it’s not completely detrimental to competitiveness.”

Here are some of the policies under the microscope.

Combustion engines

This week, E.U. officials introduced a proposal that would walk back an effective ban on the production of gas- and diesel-powered cars by 2035.

Instead of requiring automakers to produce zero-emissions cars, the revised version of the rules would require a 90 percent reduction in tailpipe emissions starting that year. Automakers would be required to offset the remaining 10 percent with low-carbon steel or alternative fuels.

The change follows intense lobbying from European automakers as they face U.S. tariff pressure and surging competition from Chinese manufacturers. The E.U. climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, said the proposal would ensure a clean future for the European car industry at a time when it is “fighting for survival,” Cohen and Nelson reported.

This year, the Trump administration, along with Republicans in Congress, eliminated tax credits for electric vehicle buyers and blocked California’s plans to phase out the sales of new gas-powered vehicles by 2035. This month, the administration moved to weaken fuel efficiency requirements for new cars and light trucks that would have forced automakers to sell more electric and hybrid vehicles.

Deforestation delay, Part 2

In 2023, the European Union passed a bold law aimed at preserving forests around the world by banning imported goods linked to deforestation. On Wednesday, legislators voted to delay the law for a second time.

The rules govern products containing seven land-intensive commodities: cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, soybeans, rubber and wood. They require companies to monitor their supply chains to ensure these materials are not sourced from land that has been converted from forest to agriculture since 2020.

It’s a vast and complicated task, and the law has drawn pushback. Companies balked. Indonesia’s economic minister called the plan “regulatory imperialism,” objecting to Europe’s efforts to impose environmental standards on economically important industries in other nations. Some E.U. member countries asked for a delay, and so did the Biden administration. Last December, the E.U. granted a one-year reprieve.

As this year’s deadline inched closer, lawmakers again grew concerned, this time that the record-keeping requirements would overwhelm an I.T. system used to collect paperwork. The E.U. Parliament voted to delay it for another year and simplify some of the reporting requirements.

“The heart of the E.U. deforestation regulation remains intact,” Christine Schneider, a German member of the European Parliament, said in a statement. “This agreement takes the concerns of farmers, foresters and businesses seriously and ensures that the regulation can be implemented in a practical and workable way.”

What’s next

There are new European climate laws that the world may have to adjust to. In 2027, for example, oil and gas companies exporting to Europe will have to comply with strict methane-monitoring standards. And in January, some emissions-intensive imports like steel and cement will be subject to a new border tax based on their climate footprint, part of a broad effort to put a price on imported carbon emissions.

On Tuesday, Lisa Friedman reported that the Trump administration was seeking an exemption from the methane law for American oil and gas companies. China has balked at both the emissions border tax and the deforestation rule.

These climate policies were intended to lay the track for other countries to follow — examples of what has been called “the Brussels effect.” But it’s not clear if the rest of the world will comply.

“I think there is a concern that Europe is trying to lead a fight, and it’s going to find itself alone in this fight,” Fifi said. “The other big players — China and Russia or the United States — at the moment are not even thinking about it.”

Цепочки углерода

ID.PAGE — Mon, 22 Dec 2025 01:58:01 +0300

Поставки как главный фактор климатической устойчивости компаний

Российский бизнес входит в фазу, когда климатические риски в цепочках поставок становятся ключевым параметром устойчивости. Новые требования Банка России к раскрытию целей устойчивого развития и рекомендации Мосбиржи, усиление международных норм приводят к тому, что контроль над выбросами Scope 3 становится обязательным элементом корпоративного управления. Для многих отраслей речь идет о 70–90% углеродного следа, формируемого поставщиками. На этом фоне компании сталкиваются с дефицитом достоверных данных, усложнением регулирования и изменением подходов в ЕС и Китае, где устанавливаются собственные системы оценки углеродного следа. Глобальные компании повышают требования к цепочкам поставок, несмотря на политическую неопределенность. Для российских участников рынка это означает необходимость перехода от разовых ESG-опросов к полноценной цифровой прослеживаемости и стандартизированной оценке поставщиков.

Фото: Edgar Su / Reuters

Углеродный след поставщиков

В конце ноября Банк России опубликовал требования к стандартному годовому отчету публичных компаний. Регулятор планирует закрепить норму, по которой эмитенты, чьи ценные бумаги входят в котировальные списки первого и второго уровней, обязаны раскрывать информацию о целях устойчивого развития (ESG). Такие поправки планируется внести в нормативные акты до конца этого года. Появления в России четких правил и стандартов отчетности компании ждали давно. Это должно существенно упростить работу тем, кто выстраивает внутренние процессы и старается соблюдать требования других юрисдикций, чтобы сохранять доступ к глобальным рынкам.

В новых геополитических условиях основной способ не выпасть из мировых рынков — работать на экспорт. Ключевые риски устойчивости смещаются в цепочки поставок. Для многих отраслей 70–90% совокупного углеродного следа формируется не внутри компании (Scope 1 и Scope 2), а вне нее — это выбросы Scope 3. В таких отраслях именно поставщики определяют устойчивость конечного продукта, его соответствие требованиям и возможность выхода компании на внешние рынки.

Высокая концентрация рисков в Scope 3 делает компании уязвимыми сразу по нескольким направлениям. Регуляторные риски — несоответствие продукции требованиям ЕС и других стран к ответственным цепочкам поставок. Рыночные риски — потеря контрактов с партнерами, которые уже ввели обязательные ESG-анкеты и аудит поставщиков. Операционные риски — сбои поставок на фоне климатических проблем, волатильности цен на энергию и сырьевых ограничений.

По данным Accenture 2021 года, в среднем выбросы Scope 3 в 11,4 раза превышают выбросы Scope 1 и 2, вместе взятые. В электронике доля Scope 3 составляет 77% объема выбросов, а для компаний, производящих товары повседневного спроса (FMCG),— более 90%. Ограниченность ESG-данных по всей цепочке создания стоимости становится ключевым препятствием для управления выбросами: почти две трети руководителей компаний в мире (63%) говорят, что сложность измерения данных ESG по всей цепочке является барьером для устойчивого развития отрасли.

Так, климатическая устойчивость сегодня определяется не только внутренней политикой компании, но и тем, как она требовательна к поставщикам и внимательно отслеживает выбросы Scope 3.

Регулирование цепочек поставок в России

Россия тут не отстает от мировых лидеров. Кроме новых требований ЦБ к информации об устойчивом развитии в начале 2025 года регулятор опубликовал методические рекомендации по применению основных принципов добросовестного поведения на финансовом рынке. Ответственные цепочки поставок (ОЦП) прямо названы частью стандартов ответственного ведения бизнеса в организациях финансового рынка.

В начале 2025 года Мосбиржа обновила руководство для эмитентов «Как соответствовать лучшим практикам устойчивого развития», где появился отдельный раздел ОЦП. Компаниям предлагается разработать перечень требований в области устойчивого развития ко всем поставщикам. Отмечено, что ESG-требования становятся основой для взаимодействия с поставщиками по вопросам устойчивого развития. В руководстве приведены и методические рекомендации по ESG-оценке поставщиков Национального ESG Альянса как основа оценки контрагентов.

Еще один элемент инфраструктуры — запущенный в 2024 году ЭКГ-рейтинг, национальный стандарт оценки деловой репутации. Он потенциально может стать инструментом поиска и мониторинга поставщиков, оценки их уровня и проверки добросовестности. Так, в России вопросы ответственных цепочек поставок и оценки поставщиков на предмет соблюдения требований в области устойчивого развития выходят на уровень регуляторов. Для компаний, у которых нет системной работы с поставщиками, это в долгосрочной перспективе означает столкновение не только с внешними, но и с внутренними регуляторными барьерами — вплоть до потери контрактов.

Эти риски осознают и по своей инициативе выстраивают работу с поставщиками в ритейле и металлургии. По данным НИФИ Минфина России, все больше компаний РФ задумываются о мерах против контрагентов, не выполняющих ESG-требования. Ранее данный вопрос имел более рекомендательный характер.

Мировые ОЦП

В 2025 году выделяется несколько мировых трендов в ОЦП. Во-первых, растет разрыв между амбициями политиков, ожиданиями инвесторов и реальной готовностью компаний достигать заявленных целей устойчивого развития. Тут упоминаются и популистская риторика Дональда Трампа, и изменение подхода ЕС к регулированию, и ужесточение требований в Китае. Во-вторых, бизнесу приходится ориентироваться в усложняющемся регулировании. Компании вынуждены одновременно учитывать национальные законы, отраслевые стандарты и требования международных партнеров. В-третьих, резко возрастает потребность в качественных данных. Это один из ключевых компонентов комплексной проверки поставщиков и основа для реального управления рисками. В-четвертых, усиливается акцент на отношениях с поставщиками: вместо использования рычагов давления у крупных игроков формируется модель тесного сотрудничества.

Тезис о том, что отдельные регионы якобы меньше зарегулированы и являются «сферой пониженного риска», признается устаревшим. На практике компании пересматривают свои стратегии в области ОЦП и больше не считают географию автоматическим индикатором низкого риска. Геополитические сдвиги, как показывают опросы, не снижают внимания к стратегиям должной осмотрительности и этичному подбору поставщиков. Они становятся одним из способов стабилизации цепочек поставок в нестабильной среде.

Почему компании не раскрывают Scope 3

Снижение углеродного следа упирается в проблему учета. Исследование Deloitte 2024 года показывает: 74% компаний раскрывают информацию о выбросах в рамках Scope 1 и 53% — по Scope 2, но лишь 15% отчитываются о выбросах Scope 3, хотя на Scope 3 может приходиться до 95% выбросов компании. С выбросами Scope 3 действительно сложно. Они возникают у поставщиков и дальше по цепочке, их трудно полноценно оценить.

Респонденты Deloitte из частных компаний пока менее продвинуты в раскрытии своих выбросов категории Scope 1 (57%), но готовы раскрывать больше данных Scope 3, чем публичные компании. Однако даже среди тех 15% респондентов, которые уже готовят и раскрывают данные Scope 3, большинство признает, что сталкивается с существенными трудностями при оценке выбросов.

Главная причина: нет достоверных и полных данных, которые компании получают от партнеров в цепочке: на это указывают 64%. Еще 50% говорят об отсутствии последовательных отраслевых стандартов и методологий, что приводит к разным подходам при установлении границ учета, измерения и использования вторичных косвенных данных. Это серьезно затрудняет сопоставимость и интерпретацию показателей. Среди проблем также недостаток необходимых навыков и знаний у специалистов по сбору данных Scope 3 (43%) и недоступность данных (27%). Отдельный фактор — санкции и напряженные отношения между странами. Они усложняют доступ к данным зарубежных поставщиков, а в ряде случаев приводят к разрыву отношений. В таких условиях отследить показатели по Scope 3 становится сложнее.

Европейский Omnibus и реакция бизнеса

Свою препятствующую роль в раскрытии данных сыграл и пакет мер ЕС по упрощению требований к ключевым инструментам устойчивого развития. Пакет получил название Simplification Omnibus package и, по замыслу авторов, направлен на повышение конкурентоспособности компаний и обеспечение регуляторной прозрачности. Но ослабление части требований не привело к отказу бизнеса от практик должной осмотрительности.

Европейская организация WeAreEurope опубликовала результаты опроса компаний об ослаблении CS3D (Директива о должной корпоративной осмотрительности) через пакет Omnibus — «Omnibus Survey 2025: Corporate Insights on the CS3D». Он показал, что 77% компаний реализуют политику должной осмотрительности в цепочках поставок и только 33% подпадают под действие национальных законов (Франции, Германии, Норвегии и других стран). Значительная часть (49%) европейских компаний воспринимает CS3D как конкурентное преимущество и лишь 11% видят ее проблемой. Особенно хорошо настроены те, у кого уже есть опыт выстраивания таких цепочек: 52% из них видят в директиве стратегическую пользу.

Отчет Лаборатории устойчивых цепочек поставок MIT фиксирует: несмотря на политическую неопределенность, большинство компаний не снижает темпы развития ОЦП, а многие, напротив, усиливают внимание к ним. Организации, которые ставят перед собой цели устойчивого развития, значительно чаще интегрируют такие принципы в повседневные решения и инвестируют в преобразующие решения.

Методики расчетов и цифровой разрыв

Важной проблемой в раскрытии выбросов Scope 3 остается методика их расчета. В отчете MIT отмечено, что электронные таблицы — основной инструмент учета Scope 3: 66,1% компаний используют именно их независимо от размера бизнеса. Зависимость от электронных таблиц, заполняемых поставщиками и подрядчиками, повышает риски, связанные с качеством данных, контролируемостью и масштабируемостью.

Чтобы получать более качественные данные, компании вынуждены переходить к стандартизированным моделям данных и интегрированным системам, которые подключаются к корпоративным платформам — ERP, логистике, закупкам. Это ключевое условие снижения количества ошибок и улучшения интеграции данных поставщиков. Фактически процесс измерения выбросов Scope 3 все еще находится на начальной стадии развития и в большинстве случаев опирается на ручную обработку данных. Интегрированных систем учета выбросов пока нет.

Углеродный след и промышленная политика Китая

ОЦП и расчет углеродного следа поставок становятся новой реальностью и для азиатских стран. Для российских компаний это важно, поскольку в долгосрочной перспективе ОЦП будет одним из факторов сотрудничества с азиатскими рынками. Китай планирует рассчитывать углеродный след продукции по цепочке поставок, включая след от производства сырья, вне зависимости от страны его происхождения. В мае 2024 года был опубликован «План внедрения по созданию системы управления углеродным следом», цель которого — ускорить создание такой системы.

План предусматривает определение около 100 стандартов углеродного следа для ключевых продуктов до 2027 года и 200 стандартов — до 2030-го. База данных должна быть готова к 2027 году, а повсеместный запуск системы запланирован на 2030-й. Документ предусматривает создание системы маркировки, сертификации и сортировки продукции по углеродному следу. Применение оценки углеродного следа продукции будет постепенно расширяться, а правила учета, маркировка и сертификации выбросов будут приводиться по международным стандартам.

Китай намерен активно участвовать в формировании международных норм учета. Правительство КНР выпустило «Отчет о ходе подготовки Плана внедрения по созданию системы управления углеродным следом». В 2024 году принят нацстандарт «Требования и рекомендации по количественному определению углеродного следа продукции, выделяющей парниковые газы» (GB/T 24067–2024). Он определяет исследования, принципы и методы количественного определения углеродного следа продукции, заполняет пробел в общих стандартах учета углеродного следа в КНР и служит базой для разработки отраслевых стандартов. Компаниям рекомендуется собирать такую информацию на ключевых этапах производственной цепочки, даже на тех, что находятся вне их прямого контроля.

Следующий шаг — цифровая прослеживаемость

Логичным мировым развитием ОЦП становятся цифровая прослеживаемость и стандартизация данных. Чтобы соответствовать новым нормам, компании переходят от разовых ESG-опросников и электронных таблиц к полноценной архитектуре данных по цепочкам поставок.

Ключевые элементы такой системы — единый стандарт данных для поставщиков, в том числе по углеродному следу продукции, энергоэффективности и отходам, платформа цифровой прослеживаемости с возможностью верификации данных по всей цепочке: от первичного сырья до конечного продукта, интеграция этих данных в корпоративную отчетность и автоматизация расчетов Scope 3, климатический due diligence поставщиков — аудит, классификация рисков и разработка корректирующих мероприятий.

Climate Change Supercharged $20 Billion Asia Floods, Study Finds

ID.PAGE — Fri, 12 Dec 2025 12:55:32 +0300

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-10/climate-change-supercharged-20-billion-asia-floods-study-finds?srnd=phx-greenDecember 11, 2025

By Joe Wertz and Mary Hui

Takeaways by Bloomberg AI

Climate change supercharged devastating floods that killed more than 1,600 people across parts of South and Southeast Asia, according to new research.
Warmer Indian Ocean waters likely fueled the two strongest storms, Cyclones Ditwah and Senyar, by supplying extra heat and moisture, scientists reported.
Researchers found that climate change is likely intensifying periods of extreme rainfall such as those seen during the storms, but were unable to determine exactly how much climate change increased rainfall from the two cyclones.

Climate change supercharged devastating floods that killed more than 1,600 people across parts of South and Southeast Asia, according to new research.

A trio of tropical cyclones battered the region from Sri Lanka to Indonesia in November, causing at least $20 billion of losses. The storms resulted in torrential rainfall and destructive floodwaters that swept through homes, businesses and tourist spots, damaged roads and rail lines, obliterated crops and smothered factory output.

Warmer Indian Ocean waters — about 0.2C above long-term seasonal averages — likely fueled the two strongest storms, Cyclones Ditwah and Senyar, by supplying extra heat and moisture, scientists reported in a rapid World Weather Attribution analysis released Thursday.

Without human-driven warming, ocean temperatures would have been roughly 1C cooler, researchers said. They also found that climate change is likely intensifying periods of extreme rainfall such as those seen during the storms.

The boost from climate change was amplified by seasonal weather cycles and the timing of the storms, which arrived during monsoon season, along with rapid urbanization and widespread deforestation that helped turn torrential rain into catastrophic floods, according to researchers.

“During the monsoon season, we expect flooding, but up to about one, two [foot] level,” said Lalith Rajapakse at the University of Moratuwa in Sri Lanka. “In some areas, it was exceeding 14 to 15 feet.”

However, the team was unable to determine exactly how much climate change increased rainfall from the two cyclones. Major climate models produced inconsistent results, likely because they struggle to capture regional dynamics and global patterns such as La Niña, said co-author Mariam Zachariah of Imperial College London.

Last month’s weather in Asia was “a very extreme event, so we shouldn’t be surprised that climate change models don’t account for it well,” said Matt Sechovsky, head of ESG country research at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. “Climate models tend to have underestimated the pace of climate change that we have seen since around 2022.”

Many of the same climate models underpin risk models used by insurers and financial firms, which adds economic challenges in a region that is seeing erratic weather more frequently, said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC Holdings Plc.

“Although it’s hard to quantify the effect that such uncertainty has itself on growth and livelihoods, it certainly presents a drag on activity, as well as a burden for the region’s populations,” he said.

Other scientists also found fingerprints of climate change in last month’s floods.

ClimaMeter, an attribution group at France’s Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, estimated that meteorological conditions driving Indonesia’s November inundations were up to 7 millimeters a day — or 15% — wetter than they would have been in the past, based on an analysis of historical weather data that don’t rely on climate models.

The group cautioned that it had low confidence in its findings because similar events are rare and don’t appear routinely in available records. They concluded that natural climate variability, including typically wetter La Niña conditions, likely played little role in the floods.

The rapid assessment aligns with earlier research that shows “an increasing aggravation of extreme rainfall in Southeast Asia in recent decades,” said Gianmarco Mengaldo, a professor at the National University of Singapore.

Water at the centre of climate resilience: at COP30 and beyond

ID.PAGE — Wed, 26 Nov 2025 11:09:03 +0300

Juliet Willetts

Launch of policy brief on gender, climate, sanitation and water at the COP30 Race to Resilience Hub, with Kirsty McNichol from the Department Foreign Affairs and Trade (Race to Resilience/Maria Aguilar)

With the increasing attention given to adaptation at COP30 in Belem, water is moving from the sidelines to centre stage. 90% of disasters in the last decade were water-related, and with increasing disruption of the hydrological cycle by both climate change and human activity, floods, storms and droughts are increasingly affecting water management, economic development and natural ecosystems. The impacts are worst at the frontlines, in vulnerable, climate-exposed communities, including many in the Indo-Pacific region.

Yet water is more than a sectoral issue, it is a unifying force. It serves and interconnects agendas relating to climate change, nature conservation and economic development, as the Global Commission on the Economics of Watermakes clear. Valuing and governing water as a global common good and investing in water-related adaptation efforts can support a healthy water cycle, providing food security, access to basic water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) services needed for health, changed land-use and biodiversity, a just energy transition and increased circularity.

Sanitation and wastewater, meanwhile, are by no means disassociated with climate change. Quite the contrary. Wastewater contributes 7-10% of global methane emissions, a proportion that will rise as other sectors decarbonise, and instead, managed well, can produce energy, offer nutrients that displace synthetic fertilisers and provide precious re-use water to serve other needs. These qualities have warranted new guidance on climate financing investments in sanitation by the Green Climate Fund. Equally, impacts of climate events on sanitation systems can be devastating and adaptations to infrastructure and services are critical — overflow from combined sewers plague the UK, seeping septic tanks in coastal areas of Florida, Hawaii and the Pacific Islandsincreasingly destroy recreational waters and reefs, threatening tourism. And in low-lying cities in Indonesia with high groundwater tables, drinking-water sources show increased contamination with increased rainfall.

Water also offers an entry point for equity and inclusion. The basic human rights of access to sanitation and to water are foundational elements of climate resilience. The UNFCCC Global Goal for Adaptation (GGA) recognises this, with water positioned as the first of seven thematic targets, and climate-resilient water and sanitation servicesidentified as key elements. Last week negotiators debated the merits of the proposed GGA indicators and ultimately adopted a reduced list of 60, including nine indicators related to water and sanitation. Meanwhile, UNICEF and WHO have been working ahead of the game. They have been supporting a rigorous process with an academic consortium to develop sound global indicators for climate-resilient sanitation and water services that can drive policy change and influence institutions capable of adaptation, as well as highlight differentiated impacts on users at the individual level. We know that women, in particular, are most impacted when services are disrupted, and yet remain sidelined in decisions and responses. For this reason we, at the University of Technology Sydney, developed a gendered water security framework with the Asian Development Bank last year, that shifts the orientation from a technical to a social focus, cognisant of disparities in voice and agency between affected groups.

To date, Australia has offered leadership in this space. Investment in the Water for Women Fund, focused on climate resilience in its second phase (2023-2025), achieved significant progress in increasing access, with more than 4.4 million direct beneficiaries, strengthened gender transformative practice and shifted implementation practice to address climate risks. With combined research grants alongside practice and implementation, the Fund generated and shared leading knowledge, including on climate integration. The Australian Water Partnership has championed water and climate at numerous COPs, sharing Australian expertise in drought management and basin planning as an adaptation response, as well as producing knowledge resources on climate change and water security risks and the contribution of water to resilience in the Indo-Pacific.

At COP30, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade’s Kirsty McNichol, Director of the Climate Finance Section, spoke at the launch of our policy brief on gender, climate, sanitation and water that outlines the links, alongside Chile’s first female President, Michelle Bachelet, who inspired others with her personal call to earn, defend and renew justice in every generation, including ending the human crisis of climate change that denies so many access to sanitation and to water. We also launched guidance developed with UNICEF and the Global Water Partnership as part of the strategic framework for climate resilient water, sanitation and hygiene, supporting improved monitoring of the contribution of sanitation and water to community resilience to climate change.

There is much more to be done. The recently released World Bank report on the sanitation crisis and resilience reminds us that some one-third of the urban population globally, more than a billion people, faces a triple burden — of poverty, of exposure to flooding and of limited sanitation access. The result is a vicious cycle of poor health, low economic productivity and reduced water quality. Meanwhile 50% of the world’s population already faces high levels of water stress for at least one month every year, reducing water access.

Yet, there remains a $140.8 billion global funding gap in water and sanitation annually, and climate financing so far to sanitation and water services is paltry, unreflective of the lived experience of those without access. The Climate Policy Initiative is reporting it to be as low as 2.6% of global climate financing in 2025. This is despite the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe’s analysis that 61% of countries’ National Adaptation Plans give high priority to water supply and 37% to sanitation, and recent UNFCCC Least Developed Countries Expert Group analysis demonstrating examples of successful implementation of water and sanitation initiatives as part of national adaptation efforts.

We look ahead to surpassing the 1.5 degree threshold in global warming, and move toward the increasingly unknown territory of tipping pointsand transgression of multiple planetary boundaries. If we were to take the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s advice on transformative adaptation, we would focus on water as a key pillar to adaptation. We would invest in ensuring basic daily needs for clean water and sanitation are met, we would change the dial on the climate financing allocation to the water sector, for water resources management and WASH services, and we would see increased community resilience flow from this — in improved health, productivity, prosperity, gender equality and ecosystem health.

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Disclosure

The gender, climate, sanitation and water policy brief and gender transformative practice researchdiscussed in this blog was undertaken with funding support from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade through Water for Women; work on global indicators for monitoring climate resilient water, sanitation and hygiene is funded by WHO and UNICEF; the development of gender and water security framework was funded by ADB; and monitoring contribution of water and sanitation to community resilience was funded by UNICEF East Asia and Pacific Regional Office.

COP30 Climate Summit Reaches Deal That Leaves Many Nations Unhappy

ID.PAGE — Mon, 24 Nov 2025 11:16:17 +0300

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-22/nations-embrace-deal-for-stronger-climate-plans-at-cop30-summitNovember 23, 2025

Almost 200 nations gathered in Brazil for the United Nations’ annual climate summit capped two weeks of fraught negotiations with an agreement Saturday on new efforts to help guide their transition away from the fossil fuels driving global warming.

However, the accord dodged an explicit mention of the oil, gas and coal responsible for driving the bulk of climate change, and it didn’t detail plans for shifting away from them, leaving some countries unhappy with the outcome.

The eight-page declaration forged at the COP30 summit on the edge of the Amazon rain forest won grudging acceptance. Many nations argued more must be done to counter climate change, while also conceding that an imperfect package was better than none at all.

“With an increasingly fractured geopolitical backdrop, COP30 gave us some baby steps in the right direction,” said Mohamed Adow, director of the Power Shift Africa advocacy group. “But considering the scale of the climate crisis, it has failed to rise to the occasion.”
Leaders at the summit in Belém, Brazil, had encouraged countries to accept a final deal even if it didn’t have everything they wanted. They insisted it was necessary to show nations were linking arms to fight climate change at a time when other multilateral diplomacy is fraying.

“This deal isn’t perfect and is far from what science requires,” said Mary Robinson, the former president of Ireland. “But at a time when multilateralism is being tested, it is significant that countries continue to move forward together.”

The agreement from the COP30 summit responds to a looming gap between what’s necessary to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels and what countries are actually doing or committed to pursuing.

Under the decision adopted Saturday, the COP presidency would run a new voluntary initiative meant to “accelerate implementation” of action needed to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels — a key threshold identified in the 2015 Paris Agreement. A separate “Belém Mission to 1.5” is aimed at enabling implementation of national emission-cutting pledges.

A group of about 80 countries and the European Union had pressed for a more explicit road map to guide the transition away from oil, gas and coal toward a cleaner economy but met resistance from key oil and gas producing states from the Middle East as well as Russia.

Supporters of the final decision said it keeps an opening for further guidelines and collaboration on how countries can fulfill their two-year-old commitment to transition the world’s energy systems away from fossil fuels. That agreement was a crucial aspect of COP28 in Dubai.

The Global Mutirão decision, named after a Brazilian term for collective action, lacks an explicit, word-by-word reiteration of the commitment to an energy transition some delegates said was important to bolster business and investment decisions.

“Staying silent on fossil fuels” isn’t sufficient, said Harjeet Singh, a founding director of the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation.

COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago separately pledged to create two separate “road map” initiatives, one focused on an orderly, just transition away from fossil fuels and one focused on deforestation. Those initiatives would continue during his presidency over the next year.

“They will be led by science, and they will be inclusive,” Corrêa do Lago vowed. The announcement drew applause in the packed COP30 closing plenary room on Saturday.

The declaration itself omits any significant references to combating deforestation, even though the issue was prioritized by Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The only real mention comes in the document’s preamble, with an acknowledgment of the importance of “enhanced efforts towards halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation by 2030.”

Several countries raised concerns Saturday, complaining that their views had been overlooked inside negotiating rooms and the final session. A representative from Panama said the nation was “extremely disappointed” with the final outcome, saying it pretends to measure work on adaptation while refusing to offer meaningful resources to fund it.

Colombia raised an objection to a text addressing how to limit warming because it was silent on the fossil fuels responsible for the majority of climate change.

A Colombia representative said the country had no choice but to object to the mitigation measure unless the summit agreed to add a reference to discussion of “industry and the pathways for implementing the transition away from fossil fuels” at 2026 dialogues.

“There is no mitigation if we cannot discuss transitioning away from fossil fuels,” she told the plenary. “Today, we’re not even allowed to discuss it.”

After negotiators huddled on the matter, the objection was resolved with a plan for future talks on the issues.

US President Donald Trump, who has derided climate change as a “scam,” and is pulling his country out of the Paris Agreement, shunned the summit, creating a power vacuum that empowered other nations during the two weeks of talks.

Energy and environment ministers from around the globe wrestled with difficult questions about how trade policy impacts climate change as well as how to boost the amount of finance available to help countries adapt to the warming world’s rising seas, intensifying storms and punishing droughts.

The declaration adopted Saturday calls for the tripling of adaptation finance by 2035 compared to 2025 levels, equivalent to around $120 billion. That fell short of poor nations’ push for the commitment to be met five years earlier.

The measure also takes a swipe at so-called unilateral trade actions such as tariffs and carbon levies, reaffirming that measures taken to combat climate change “should not constitute a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade.” It also sets up a dialogue and a high-level event in 2028 to consider the role of trade policy.

The trade language responds to developing nations concerned about the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which imposes an extra fee on imports of covered goods coming from countries whose price on carbon dioxide is below that of the bloc.

Climate Talks Enter Crunch Time at COP30 Summit in Brazil

ID.PAGE — Wed, 19 Nov 2025 08:43:59 +0300

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-18/climate-talks-enter-crunch-time-at-cop30-summit-in-brazilNovember 18, 2025

Takeaways by Bloomberg AI

Negotiators at the COP30 summit in Brazil have laid out options for addressing the world's disappointing progress in curbing greenhouse gas emissions, with several contentious topics remaining unresolved.
The draft agreement proposes various approaches to issues such as closing the emissions gap, transitioning away from fossil fuels, and providing finance for developing nations, but activists say the proposals are not sufficient.
The presence of Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the talks is expected to influence the pace of the negotiations, with the Brazilian COP30 presidency aiming to conclude a first "package" of decisions on Wednesday.

Negotiators leading United Nations climate talks in Brazil laid out options for addressing the world’s disappointing progress in curbing greenhouse gas emissions, though countries remain far apart on finance and trade policy.

The nine-page draft agreement unveiled Tuesday at the COP30 summit leaves unresolved several contentious topics, reflecting deep divisions over how to help developing countries adapt to global warming and how nations should live up to their 2023 commitment to transition away from fossil fuels.

The draft text comes one day before Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is slated to return to the talks in Belém to try to boost ambition in the negotiating rooms. Lula led calls at the start of the conference for road maps to address deforestation and the transition away from fossil fuels, though the proposal Tuesday falls short of that approach. The Brazilian COP30 presidency is aiming to conclude a first “package” of decisions Wednesday.

Lula’s presence “could be something that has an influence on the pace of the negotiations,” said David Waskow, an international climate director with the World Resources Institute.

The text follows more than a week of talks in the rainforest city of Belém, as COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago urges countries to come together and unite behind what he’s calling the “mutirão decision,” invoking a Brazilian term for collective effort.

Activists complained that much of the proposal isn’t sufficient to address the use of fossil fuels driving climate change — or to support poor nations working to develop their economies without them.

The proposals “largely miss the mark for the level of ambition that this COP requires,” said Rachel Cleetus, senior policy director for climate and energy at the Union of Concerned Scientists. Cleetus called the plan “far too weak” on phasing out fossil fuels and “woefully lacking” on finance.

Here’s how the so-called options text would address key issues:

Closing the emissions gap

The proposal recommends three approaches for responding to a shortfall between the emissions reductions that countries are making or have committed to and what’s actually needed to fulfill a Paris Agreement goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5C from pre-industrial levels.

A first option would set up an annual “consideration” of the issue, to address the shortfall, enable knowledge sharing and strengthen country commitments. A second would see the launch of a new, voluntary “Global Implementation Accelerator” that would seek to support countries in implementing their carbon-cutting pledges and expedite action, culminating in a later report on the work.

A third proposal would create a new “Belem Roadmap to 1.5,” identifying ways to accelerate work and addressing international cooperation and investments in countries’ carbon-cutting commitments, with a report due at next year’s climate summit.

Transitioning away from fossil fuels

Two years after nearly 200 countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner, they are now debating proposals to further define what that looks like in practice.

It’s not clear that the COP30 meeting will address the issue squarely in any final agreement. The draft document released Tuesday outlines two concrete options — plus a third, which is no text at all.

Under one of the proposals, seen as the strongest option, countries would be encouraged “to cooperate for and contribute to” global efforts to shift away from fossil fuels, with a high-level ministerial roundtable meant to help nations create transition road maps and “progressively overcome their dependency on fossil fuels,” as well as to aid them in “halting and reversing deforestation.”

A second proposal would set up a workshop for countries to share “domestic opportunities and success stories” on the shift toward “low-carbon solutions.”

“We must build on the presidency’s ideas for a pathway on the transition away from fossil fuels because there is no answer to the climate crisis without action on this issue,” Ed Miliband, UK secretary of state for energy security and net zero, said at COP30 Tuesday.

Finance for developing nations

The draft also reflects a longstanding tension over how to provide climate finance to developing countries. Many poor countries are burdened by trying to build their economies without fossil fuels and must adapt to climate impacts they had little hand in creating.

Richer, developed nations have long been put under pressure to meet finance obligations under the Paris Agreement.

One of the proposed solutions would set up a “legally-binding” plan to do so — something the likes of the EU will be loathe to accept. Under that approach, the binding plan could include development of a common system to track and report on climate finance as well as the creation of “fair burden-sharing arrangements” among developed nations.

Another option would create a new work program, with separate tracks meant to mobilize additional finance and make more of it concessional.

A third proposal would result in a two-year work program to address barriers to boosting finance, including the reform of international financial institutions.

ект соглашения по ключевым вопросам

Участники переговоров ООН по климату в Бразилии изложили варианты решения

проблемы недостаточного прогресса по сокращению выбросов парниковых газов, при

этом позиции стран по вопросам финансирования и торговой политики по-прежнему

сильно расходятся.

Девятистраничный проект соглашения, представленный 18 ноября, оставляет

нерешенными несколько спорных вопросов, отражая глубокие разногласия по поводу

того, как помочь развивающимся странам адаптироваться к изменению климата и как

правительствам следует выполнить свои обязательства по отказу от ископаемого

топлива.

Бразилия, председательствующая на COP30, намерена принять первый «пакет»

решений в среду, 19 ноября.

Сокращение выбросов

В предложении рекомендуются три подхода к решению проблемы разрыва между

сокращениями выбросов, которые страны осуществляют или обязались осуществить,

и тем, что действительно необходимо для выполнения цели ограничения роста

глобальной температуры 1,5 °C от доиндустриального уровня.

Первый вариант предполагает ежегодное «рассмотрение» этого вопроса для

устранения дефицита, обмена знаниями и укрепления обязательств стран. Второй

вариант предполагает запуск нового добровольного «Глобального ускорителя

реализации», который будет стремиться оказывать поддержку странам в выполнении

их обязательств по сокращению выбросов углерода и ускорять действия, завершаясь

последующим отчетом о проделанной работе.

Третий вариант предполагает создание новой «Дорожной карты Белена к

ограничению роста температуры 1,5 градусами», определяющей пути ускорения

работы и предусматривающей международное сотрудничество и инвестиции.

Отказ от ископаемого топлива

Спустя два года после того, как почти 200 стран согласились отказаться от

ископаемого топлива справедливым, упорядоченным и равноправным образом, они

обсуждают предложения по дальнейшему определению того, как это будет выглядеть

на практике. Остается неясным, будет ли COP30 рассматривать этот вопрос напрямую

в каком-либо окончательном соглашении. В опубликованном проекте документа

изложены два конкретных варианта, а также третий, который вообще не имеет текста.

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В рамках одного из предложений страны будут поощряться к «сотрудничеству и

содействию» глобальным усилиям по отказу от ископаемого топлива. Круглый стол

министров высокого уровня призван помочь странам разработать планы отказа и

«постепенно преодолеть свою зависимость от ископаемого топлива», а также помочь

им «остановить и обратить вспять процесс обезлесения».

Второе предложение предусматривает организацию семинара для стран, где они

смогут поделиться «внутренними возможностями и историями успеха» в области

перехода к «низкоуглеродным решениям».

Климатическое финансирование

Проект также отражает давнюю напряженность по поводу предоставления

климатического финансирования развивающимся странам. Одно из предлагаемых

решений предполагает разработку «юридически обязывающего» плана действий,

который вряд ли одобрят такие страны, как ЕС. В рамках этого подхода обязательный

план мог бы включать разработку общей системы отслеживания и отчётности по

климатическому финансированию, а также создание «справедливых механизмов

распределения бремени» между развитыми странами.

Другой вариант предполагает создание новой рабочей программы с отдельными

направлениями по мобилизации дополнительного финансирования и предоставлению

большей его части на льготных условиях.

Третье предложение предполагает разработку двухлетней рабочей программы

поустранению препятствий финансирования, включая реформирование

международных финансовых институтов.

Торговля и климат

Для решения озвученных странами опасений по поводу влияния торговых мер на

климатическую политику предлагается четыре варианта.

Первый предполагает организацию технических семинаров с такими

организациями, как ВТО, ЮНКТАД и Международный торговый центр (МТЦ) в 2026–

2027 годах.

Второй предусматривает проведение на будущих встречах диалогов с участием

стран и ключевых организаций для обсуждения того, как торговля может помочь в

достижении целей по борьбе с изменением климата.

Согласно третьему варианту, будет создана платформа для анализа

односторонних торговых мер, связанных с климатом, и их последствий, особенно для

развивающихся стран. Платформа будет проводить заседания в Бонне под совместным

председательством представителей развитых и развивающихся стран.

В последнем варианте Генерального секретаря ООН просят провести в 2026 году

крупный саммит, посвящённый необходимости открытой и справедливой мировой

торговли для поддержки развития и борьбы с бедностью. Должна быть создана

ежегодная площадка для обсуждения этой темы. Ее возглавят два сопредседателя

(один из богатой страны, другой из развивающейся). По итогам переговоров будет

подготовлен отчёт для представления на глобальных встречах по климату.